Monday, July 26, 2010

Beautiful Paintings of a Blind Artist












GBP significantly outperformed
GBP/USD. In upchannel, but stalled at 1.55

Cable (1.5432) jumped overnight, boosted by a strong GDP report. Spot remains within the uptrending channel since May, but it has also failed to make a new high for six sessions

Technicals:

* Trend: Daily lower; Weekly higher.
* Overbought/Oversold (stochastics): Daily overbought; Weekly neutral.
* Support/Resistance Levels: Resistance lies at 1.5472 (Jul15 high), 1.5524 (Apr15 high), 1.5816 (Feb17 high), 1.6284 (Jan22 high), 1.6458 (Jan19 high), 1.6479 (61.8% retracement of Nov to Dec decline), 1.6722 (Dec 3 high), 1.6878 (Nov16 high) and 1.7043 (Aug high). Support lies at 1.50 (psychological), 1.4949 (Jun12 low), 1.4239 (May19 low) and 1.3503 (Jan’09 low).

Positioning:

* The CFTC, GBP, non-commercial, net-position moderated to -35K, and it has consolidated the past three weeks, consistent with the consolidation of spot just above 1.50 up through Tuesday.
* The risk reversal (3m, 25delta) remained stable overnight and remains near the highs since Feb. While it remains skewed for GBP losses, it is also in the upper end of its six-month range, which suggests an overbought condition.
* Implied Vol (3mo) ticked higher overnight but remains near the low since Jan.

Cross-asset valuation: The significant correlates over the past two months for GBP/USD have been the DXY (negative), EUR/USD (positive), and S&P500 (positive).

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